Will Oktoberfest 2020 be cancelled?

One of the more bizarre stories I’ve come across recently, is the news that the city authorities in Munich are pushing ahead with plans for this year’s Oktoberfest. This is despite calls for the 2020 event to be cancelled whilst the world remains in the grip of the Corona-virus pandemic

Whilst it is accepted that Germany’s response to the Covid-19 crisis has been better than most European countries, it is surely far too early for the country to be easing the lock-down restrictions, let alone contemplate going ahead with an event that attracts six million extra visitors to Munich.

Tens of thousands of revellers crammed into noisy and crowded “tents” - not really tents, but semi-permanent structures dismantled and then re-erected each year. Whatever the definition, they remain as hot humid places and when crammed with thousands of revellers, could form an ideal environment where the virus could multiply. Not only that, but in such conditions, one infected person could easily pass it on to dozens of other people.

If proof of this were needed, even in normal times there’s a reported upsurge in cases of the common cold, which occurs during the second week of the festival. Locals even refer to it as the “Wiesn flu.” The name “Wiesn” derives from the Theresien Wiesse, which is the site where the event is staged each year, and is the description used by most Munich residents when referring to Oktoberfest. 

Since its inception in 1810, Oktoberfest has been cancelled 24 times, mainly due to conflict - two world wars, plus earlier disruption caused by Napoleon’s forces. Two cholera epidemics in 1854 and 1873, also prevented the event from going ahead, so calling it off for Coronavirus would not exactly be setting a new precedent.

According to Munich's department for economic affairs, last year Oktoberfest contributed more than €1.2 billion to the economy of the Bavarian state capital and generated 12,000 jobs.  With the event welcoming more than six million visitors every year, this is good business for the city’s 450 hotels and the 80,000 beds they offer.

Any decision to cancel will therefore not be taken lightly. Clemens Baumgärtner, head of the city council’s Department of Labour and the Economy, has insisted that it is still too early to make such a decision, and wants to monitor the situation until the last possible minute. 

Late June is the deadline for cancelling the festival, as by 6^th July teams of workers will have descended on the Theresien Wiesse and started assembling the large beer tents. With construction costs for these structures put at several million Euros, it would make sense for there to be a final decision at around this time, to prevent the tents being set up for no reason. 

This is why, according to Baumgärtner, the planning is still going ahead. Speaking more realistically he added, “The decision will be made with the greatest possible responsibility. In the end, it will largely depend on what the medical experts advise and what health policy and safety regulations will be issued by the federal and Bavarian governments."

Alexander Kekulé, a leading professor of virology, said that due to the global character of Oktoberfest, the pandemic needed not only to be under control in Germany, but also globally, for the event to go ahead. He stated this is highly unlikely to be the case by mid-September.

Personally speaking, I cannot see the event going ahead; I even think it would be madness to do so. Restrictions on international travel are in place right across the globe and seem unlikely to be lifted until late summer at the earliest – and that’s probably being optimistic. 

The only scenario which could enable Oktoberfest to take place is for immunity being achieved, either through everyone having had the infection, or for a vaccine to be made available. The first option is the so-called “herd immunity” effect, and is something the UK government initially adopted, before realising the disastrous impact it would have on both vulnerable people and the NHS.

Fortunately, that strategy has been dropped, although it is arguably responsible for the high death rates we are currently seeing in the UK. Vaccination is by far the most preferable solution, but even the most optimist scientists don’t expect a vaccine to be available before autumn at the earliest, and many citing next summer as the most likely.

Covid-19 is therefore likely to remain present throughout the summer, so with this in mind, it would be highly irresponsible for large-scale events, such as Oktoberfest, to go ahead.

Footnote: the photos in this post were all taken by my good self, at Oktoberfest 2017. The family and I were there for a late-morning/early afternoon session, and thoroughly enjoyed the whole experience. I'm sure it gets more crowded and much busier as the day progresses.

I would love to go back and spend more time there - but not until several more years have passed, and the world has found a solution to Covid-19.