Will Oktoberfest 2020 be cancelled?

One of the more bizarre stories I’ve come across recently, is the news that the city authorities in Munich are pushing ahead with plans for this year’s Oktoberfest. This is despite calls for the 2020 event to be cancelled whilst the world remains in the grip of the Corona-virus pandemic

Whilst it is accepted that Germany’s response to the Covid-19 crisis has been better than most European countries, it is surely far too early for the country to be easing the lock-down restrictions, let alone contemplate going ahead with an event that attracts six million extra visitors to Munich.

Tens of thousands of revellers crammed into noisy and crowded “tents” - not really tents, but semi-permanent structures dismantled and then re-erected each year. Whatever the definition, they remain as hot humid places and when crammed with thousands of revellers, could form an ideal environment where the virus could multiply. Not only that, but in such conditions, one infected person could easily pass it on to dozens of other people.

If proof of this were needed, even in normal times there’s a reported upsurge in cases of the common cold, which occurs during the second week of the festival. Locals even refer to it as the “Wiesn flu.” The name “Wiesn” derives from the Theresien Wiesse, which is the site where the event is staged each year, and is the description used by most Munich residents when referring to Oktoberfest. 

Since its inception in 1810, Oktoberfest has been cancelled 24 times, mainly due to conflict - two world wars, plus earlier disruption caused by Napoleon’s forces. Two cholera epidemics in 1854 and 1873, also prevented the event from going ahead, so calling it off for Coronavirus would not exactly be setting a new precedent.

According to Munich's department for economic affairs, last year Oktoberfest contributed more than €1.2 billion to the economy of the Bavarian state capital and generated 12,000 jobs.  With the event welcoming more than six million visitors every year, this is good business for the city’s 450 hotels and the 80,000 beds they offer.

Any decision to cancel will therefore not be taken lightly. Clemens Baumgärtner, head of the city council’s Department of Labour and the Economy, has insisted that it is still too early to make such a decision, and wants to monitor the situation until the last possible minute. 

Late June is the deadline for cancelling the festival, as by 6^th July teams of workers will have descended on the Theresien Wiesse and started assembling the large beer tents. With construction costs for these structures put at several million Euros, it would make sense for there to be a final decision at around this time, to prevent the tents being set up for no reason. 

This is why, according to Baumgärtner, the planning is still going ahead. Speaking more realistically he added, “The decision will be made with the greatest possible responsibility. In the end, it will largely depend on what the medical experts advise and what health policy and safety regulations will be issued by the federal and Bavarian governments."

Alexander Kekulé, a leading professor of virology, said that due to the global character of Oktoberfest, the pandemic needed not only to be under control in Germany, but also globally, for the event to go ahead. He stated this is highly unlikely to be the case by mid-September.

Personally speaking, I cannot see the event going ahead; I even think it would be madness to do so. Restrictions on international travel are in place right across the globe and seem unlikely to be lifted until late summer at the earliest – and that’s probably being optimistic. 

The only scenario which could enable Oktoberfest to take place is for immunity being achieved, either through everyone having had the infection, or for a vaccine to be made available. The first option is the so-called “herd immunity” effect, and is something the UK government initially adopted, before realising the disastrous impact it would have on both vulnerable people and the NHS.

Fortunately, that strategy has been dropped, although it is arguably responsible for the high death rates we are currently seeing in the UK. Vaccination is by far the most preferable solution, but even the most optimist scientists don’t expect a vaccine to be available before autumn at the earliest, and many citing next summer as the most likely.

Covid-19 is therefore likely to remain present throughout the summer, so with this in mind, it would be highly irresponsible for large-scale events, such as Oktoberfest, to go ahead.

Footnote: the photos in this post were all taken by my good self, at Oktoberfest 2017. The family and I were there for a late-morning/early afternoon session, and thoroughly enjoyed the whole experience. I'm sure it gets more crowded and much busier as the day progresses.

I would love to go back and spend more time there - but not until several more years have passed, and the world has found a solution to Covid-19.

A look back at the Isle of Man - Part two

Concluding my look back at the four day break I spent in the Isle of Man, almost exactly 10 years ago, we pick up on what happened on the Friday – the day before the CAMRA Conference & AGM kicked off.

The day dawned bright and sunny, but with the conference not due to start until the following morning, we had another whole day in which to explore the island. So, after another excellent breakfast of Manx Kippers, I made my way to Douglas station where I’d arranged to meet friends Iain and Carole, plus colleagues from Maidstone & Mid-Kent CAMRA.

The station is the and is located at the landward end of the quay in Douglas and is an impressive red-brick building. Although it is only about half of its former size, Douglas railway station is still an impressive complex, because as well as being the main terminus of the Isle of Man Railway, a narrow gauge steam-operated railway connecting Douglas with Castletown and Port Erin, it was once the hub to a number of other lines now all closed), that connected to Peel, Ramsey and Foxdale.

Jeff, from MMK was our guide for the day, as not only is he an expert on public transport in the UK, he also knows a fair bit about buses and trains overseas. In recent years he has arranged beer tours to destinations in both the Czech Republic and Germany and is the person behind the now, sadly cancelled visit to Pilsen, that was supposed to take place this May. He is definitely the right sort of person to have as your guide!

Jeff's plan was a tour around the south and west of the Isle of Man, traveling by steam train as far as Port Erin, and then on to Peel, via Castletown, by bus. It’s sometimes good to sit back and let someone knowledgeable take charge of the travel arrangements, especially when like me you’ve a family that relies on you to take care of that side of things, when on holiday.

So, sit back and enjoy the ride I did, right to the end of the line at Port Erin on the island’s south-west coast. From there it was just a short hop from the station to the Falcon's Nest Hotel, overlooking the stunning crescent-shaped bay. The Falcon is an impressive looking free house with two bars, and a substantial number of rooms to let. It also served a good pint of Bushy’s Bitter from the brewery of the same name.

There’s something relaxing about sitting and watching the sea; a fact I was reminded of just a couple of short months ago, when Mrs PBT’s and I stopped of at the Worm’s Head Hotel, at the far end of the Gower Peninsular. That seems like a lifetime ago now!

Ten years ago, we had a schedule to keep to, so it was back up the road and onto the bus for the next stage of our journey. From memory the bus was a double-decker, so we sat on the top deck in order to admire the view. 

The route re-traced our outward route as far as Castletown, before heading north past the Isle of Man’s main airport at Ronaldsway. Because of the disruption to flights caused by the ash cloud from the Icelandic volcano, the airport seemed eerily quiet.

We’d half expected to meet our friend Simon there, as after being unable to fly the previous day from Manchester, he thought there might be a local flight across from Blackpool airport. Unfortunately, there weren’t any, so Simon was unable to make it to the AGM; a real shame as not only did we miss his company, but he was also one of the editors and main driving forces behind our Gateway to Kent Guide – see below for details about the publication picking up the top award.

Our journey continued all the way to Peel passing the Tynwald National Park – historic home of the IOM Parliament since Viking times, on our way. Peel is the third largest town on the island after Douglas and Ramsey and is a seaside town and small fishing port. It is home to a couple of good pubs, but our itinerary only allowed time to visit one.

The pub chosen was the multi-roomed White House Hotel, a pub with an interior of regional historic significance, thereby qualifying for a place on CAMRA’s National Inventory of Heritage Pubs. The White House is a notable free house and has been awarded Isle of Man CAMRA Pub of The Year competition several times.  

With my notes missing, I am unable to recall the beers on offer, but what I do remember is heading off in advance of the bus departure time to a nearby bakery, in order to buy a pasty to eat on the bus. Our next stop was Ballough Bridge, where the Raven provided us with some excellent Okell’s beer. Because of its position on the TT circuit, it is a good pub to stand and watch the riders as they flash by.

The bus then took us roughly east, across the northern neck of the island and into Ramsey, where we again visited the Trafalgar. It was back on the Manx Electric Railway after, as far as Laxey, where we enjoyed some excellent Bushy's in the Queen's Hotel, before finally boarding a bus back to Douglas.

Once back in town,  we went along to the Villa Marina conference centre to register our attendance and pick up our members’ weekend bag of goodies – so good that I’ve forgotten what they were! We then made our way to a café, which a couple of the Maidstone contingent had found the previous evening. I have to say the cod and chips rather good.

Afterwards there were a couple of Okells pubs, close to the Inner Harbour, that we called in at. I can picture one of them in my mind’s eye, a traditional boozer, with plenty of wooden panelling, but again the name escapes me.

Saturday and most of Sunday were spent at the CAMRA AGM, held in the impressive, and recently restored Villa Marina complex in Douglas. Although the last such event I attended had been the 1984 AGM in Edinburgh, I found the debates and speeches far more interesting than I'd expected to. I was particularly impressed with the presentation given by the Campaign's then Chief Executive, Mike Benner.

We spent both those lunchtimes at the Conference Beer Exhibition. where there was a good selection of beers to enjoy, as well as friends and colleagues to meet up with. The highlight of the weekend came on the Sunday, when the Gateway to Kent Guide; a collaboration between WK, MMK and G&D branches, picked up the award for best local CAMRA guide for 2009! This achievement was a fitting reward for all the hard work that went in to producing the guide. The photo shows Jeff, who was MMK chairman at the time, with Iain, our sadly departed and much-missed friend. Iain was chairman of WK CAMRA, back in 2010.

In summary, I had an excellent and most enjoyable four days on the Isle of Man.  The excursions we made to Castletown and Port Erin in the south, Peel in the west, Ramsey in the north, plus of course Douglas and Laxey in the east, enabled me to see most of the island.  The pubs we visited at these destinations, and points in between, were also good, although I must confess, I grew a little tired of Okells’ beer. 

With the bonus of good company, nice surroundings, busy and unspoilt pubs and beer at up to £1 a pint cheaper than it was at the time in Kent, there was nothing not to like, I’d certainly give my hind teeth to be experiencing something similar, at the moment!

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